(Forge Books) is about the turf wars between the Pentagon and the CIA and the privatization of national security.
The Spy Who Killed Me: Litvinenko Poisoning Theories
Time to pull out your tin foil hat and let’s take a look at some of the theories as to who poisoned Litvinenko
before the tabloid news programs on Fox and CNN turn it into the next
celebrity murder case and world is awash with unstoppable
sensationalist theories.
Here are some of the theories I've seen in various internet discussions:
- The murder was designed to frame Putin as to frighten other regime critics into silence.
It’s a very Western perspective to believe that framing the FSB/Putin for the murder of a dissent in London would have any affect upon Putin's power, except to increase his popularity with the old-timers still longing for Uncle Joe. Despite what many wanted to believe about his democratic tendencies several years ago, Putin was then and remains an authoritarian ruler. Public opinion has no impact on his power unless there are massive uprisings in the streets and even then it only really matters if the military refuses to quell it.
The framing
Putin theory does beg the question: why go to all the trouble of
creating a radioactive trail from Moscow to London and back if framing
Putin for the murder of a dissident is your goal? Unless you really
wanted to go to that CSKA Moscow match against Arsenal in London, the same thing could've
been accomplished much easier in Moscow: take the Metro, pop off a
couple of critics and be home by breakfast--no exotic substances
required. Even this isn't even necessary to make the public believe
that the Putin government would kill political opponents.
State-sponsored murder of government critics, both at home and abroad, has a long history in Russia, stretching well beyond the Soviets into tsarist days. When prominent Kremlin critic and human rights advocate Anna Politkovskaya was found in her own apartment building with a shot through her head and a 9mm Makarov at her side, it became clear even to the densest former Soviet citizen that the government does not like criticism and if a journalist goes to far, it will eliminate them. Keep in mind the Putin regime is so sensitive to criticism that it recently tried a journalist for satirizing Putin's program to increase the Russian national birth rate. When regime critics are killed in Russia, the default assumption is that the state is behind it--no tin foil hat required.
State-sponsored murder of government critics, both at home and abroad, has a long history in Russia, stretching well beyond the Soviets into tsarist days. When prominent Kremlin critic and human rights advocate Anna Politkovskaya was found in her own apartment building with a shot through her head and a 9mm Makarov at her side, it became clear even to the densest former Soviet citizen that the government does not like criticism and if a journalist goes to far, it will eliminate them. Keep in mind the Putin regime is so sensitive to criticism that it recently tried a journalist for satirizing Putin's program to increase the Russian national birth rate. When regime critics are killed in Russia, the default assumption is that the state is behind it--no tin foil hat required.
- It was designed to frame Putin to cause international uproar as part of a larger campaign to oust him from power.
Newsflash:
International political opinion carries little to no real weight in
domestic politics (with a few possible exceptions.) The US is a prime
example. The world has not exactly been pleased with how the US has
conducted itself in the War on Terror and in Iraq. Now think about how
negative world opinion has impacted US domestic politics both in terms
of the actions of the Bush Administration and voter behavior. It
hasn't.
International opinion is like high school. With some kids, it really matters what others think--cheerleaders, class presidents, Sweden, New Zealand. With others, particularly the juvenile delinquent crowd, what classmates think really doesn't matter. Suffice it to say, Russia is not in the cheerleader crowd.
International opinion is like high school. With some kids, it really matters what others think--cheerleaders, class presidents, Sweden, New Zealand. With others, particularly the juvenile delinquent crowd, what classmates think really doesn't matter. Suffice it to say, Russia is not in the cheerleader crowd.
- It was done to scare Putin, demonstrating that one of the Russian mafias could not only access state-controlled radiation sources but also frame Putin for the murder.
He would not be shaking in his fur-lined boots over this. Unprofessionalism
aside, demonstrating that the Russian mafia could kill someone in
London is not impressive. Russian control on nuclear isotopes is soloosey-goosey
(to use a technical term) that Putin is more likely to be shocked if it
were all accounted for. Scientists are highly underpaid and and easy
bribery targets.
- The last framing theory: The Mossad or the CIA did it to turn Russian and international public opinion against Putin.
This is in the Putin laughing-himself-to-sleep category. Eliminating Litvinenko was doing Putin a favor.
If the mafia or an intelligence agency wanted to frame Putin in a way that mattered, they could tie him to support for al Qaeda. It wouldn't affect him much domestically other than making the situation in Chechnya seem even more awkward, but he would face the wrath of the US and that wouldn't be pretty.
(In fact, if any intelligence organization that wants to outsource creating a false trail between Putin and al Qaeda, I can recommend the perfect private spy shop for the project, but they don't come cheap. Note to my friends in McLean: referral fee due upon signing.)
If the mafia or an intelligence agency wanted to frame Putin in a way that mattered, they could tie him to support for al Qaeda. It wouldn't affect him much domestically other than making the situation in Chechnya seem even more awkward, but he would face the wrath of the US and that wouldn't be pretty.
(In fact, if any intelligence organization that wants to outsource creating a false trail between Putin and al Qaeda, I can recommend the perfect private spy shop for the project, but they don't come cheap. Note to my friends in McLean: referral fee due upon signing.)
- Former FSB agents eliminated Litvinenko because he was going to blackmail them.
A Russian academic who interviewed Litvinenko for a book alleged that he had bragged to her of his plans to blackmail former FSB agents, mafia-types, et al.
She claims that he boasted that he could command $20,000 each time in
hush money. Now if this is the case, he was even more of an amateur
than his killers. Operation security doesn't get much worse than
bragging about upcoming black projects to an author. As former KGB/FSB, he knew blackmailing this crowd would be deadly.
Tighten those tinfoil hats for an alternate explanation: If he wasn't incompetent and stupid, then this is probably disinformation to distract attention away from the FSB . (Remember, this is the country that used to have thousands of paying jobs in what it called "agitation and propaganda." They're quite good at disinformation.)
Tighten those tinfoil hats for an alternate explanation: If he wasn't incompetent and stupid, then this is probably disinformation to distract attention away from the FSB . (Remember, this is the country that used to have thousands of paying jobs in what it called "agitation and propaganda." They're quite good at disinformation.)
- Rogue elements in the FSB did it.
This is lifted right out of bad spy novels, not the real world. The FSB
is a very disciplined organization and doesn't tolerate dissent well,
to put it mildly. If the glow-in-the-dark trail does lead right up the
steps of the First Directorate at Dzerzhinsky Square, as I suspect,
then this is Putin's last shot at not-so-plausible deniability.
The politics and the Polonium-210 point to Putin. Dioxin didn't work out very well for them last year in Ukraine, so
now they're branching out with new methods. I suspect at minimum the FSB arranged for the
operation and supplied the Polonium if they didn't do it themselves in-house--which leads me to my new theory.
I've taken off my own tinfoil hat, so here goes. Under the pretense of saving state funds, the FSB outsourced the job to their buddies--former FSB officers--supplying them with Polonium-210 at a price. (Thus the reason the killers took the leftovers back to Moscow. It was for a refund--the FSB hasn't learned the joys of cost-plus contracting or else the contractors would've taken enough Polonium-210 to light up all of England and then would've dumped the excess in the Thames so they could over bill the Russian state for the excess--plus 10%.)
The contractors then subcontracted the hit man's cover identity to a local private spy shop, Abracadabrask, whose idea of a nonofficial cover was a soccer jersey from CSKA Moscow and a case of vodka...
...grabbing for tinfoil hat. Got it.
The politics and the Polonium-210 point to Putin. Dioxin didn't work out very well for them last year in Ukraine, so
now they're branching out with new methods. I suspect at minimum the FSB arranged for the
operation and supplied the Polonium if they didn't do it themselves in-house--which leads me to my new theory. I've taken off my own tinfoil hat, so here goes. Under the pretense of saving state funds, the FSB outsourced the job to their buddies--former FSB officers--supplying them with Polonium-210 at a price. (Thus the reason the killers took the leftovers back to Moscow. It was for a refund--the FSB hasn't learned the joys of cost-plus contracting or else the contractors would've taken enough Polonium-210 to light up all of England and then would've dumped the excess in the Thames so they could over bill the Russian state for the excess--plus 10%.)
The contractors then subcontracted the hit man's cover identity to a local private spy shop, Abracadabrask, whose idea of a nonofficial cover was a soccer jersey from CSKA Moscow and a case of vodka...
...grabbing for tinfoil hat. Got it.
This news as all of them does nothing to change somebody’s mind about Russia or its leaders. All comments do not contain any attempt for analysis but only express prejudged opinions. For rare philosophical insight go to http://notobvious.blogspot.com
BTW, my version: it was a signal to Poland not to interfere in Russia / EU negotiations among the rest. Polonium is called after Poland.
Posted by: Reader | December 04, 2006 at 20:40
A signal to Poland because Polonium is named after Poland? Dude, you've got serious problems with your tin foil hat.
Posted by: Genghis | December 04, 2006 at 22:15
RJ (may we call you RJ?), another excellent post and TRex featured it (and you) in Late Nite again over at Firedoglake.
As I emailed Jane Hamsher, more of that twould be very nice for all concerned.
One thing that struck me regardless of the sender's identity is the "message" being sent:
Your death will be accomplished without sign or signature and it will be slow, excruciatingly painful and irrevocably fatal.
Not an unimpressive message to send to his associates.
Posted by: Mad Dogs | December 05, 2006 at 00:27
...loosey-goosey (to use a technical term)...
Hah! I've been using that tech term for years. Imagine that!
It won't be much longer before this falls off the radar, when the London newspapers get bored with it, having mined every rad and scurried down every alley...
Plenty of tinfoil hats to go around, though. And plenty of people needing them. I suppose that's the downside of instant communications and the proliferation of alternative news sites.
My, how we've grown: ABC/CBS/NBC; add 24/7 cable; add their websites and the newsblogs. And now add shorter attention spans...
Naomi
Posted by: Naomi | December 05, 2006 at 00:56
Thanks for the head's up Mad Dogs.
And sure you can call me R J.
And Naomi, I'm guessing the half-life of the story will be much shorter than that of the Polonium-210--which is actually pretty short.
Posted by: R J Hillhouse | December 05, 2006 at 01:06
I only mention the half-life of the issue because I had spent almost 45 minutes googling the ex-FSB who lives in the US. I read it in the last week but now I can't find him.
Oh, well! (No tinfoil hat telling me that it's been suppressed--it's just become buried in the back pages of google, I'm sure.)
Naomi
Posted by: Naomi | December 05, 2006 at 18:46